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TITLE FIGHTMAIN EVENTLightweight5 Rounds
UFC 326: Makhachev vs Tsarukyan 2
March 14, 2026
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Win Probability
62%Makhachev
Tsarukyan38%
Predicted Winner
Islam Makhachev
Confidence: 70%Method: Decision
Why Islam Makhachev is Favored
Islam Makhachev's elite grappling and championship experience give him the edge in this highly anticipated rematch. While Tsarukyan has improved significantly since their first fight in 2019, Makhachev's control-based offense and superior submission threat make him the favorite. Expect a chess match where Makhachev's ability to impose his grappling will be the deciding factor.
Style Matchup Breakdown
Makhachev's grappling could neutralize Tsarukyan's improved striking. Tsarukyan's enhanced takedown defense may force more standup exchanges. Makhachev's cardio advantage could be decisive in championship rounds.
Key Factors
Islam on 14-fight win streakBoth fighters in prime age windowTsarukyan improved since first fightMakhachev's championship experience
Islam Makhachev Style
Arman Tsarukyan Style
Islam Makhachev Momentum
Momentum
On FireLast 5 Fights
5W - 0L
Streak
14W
Hotness Index
95
Decline Index
5
Arman Tsarukyan Momentum
Momentum
On FireLast 5 Fights
5W - 0L
Streak
6W
Hotness Index
90
Decline Index
5
Islam Makhachev Red Flags
Weight Cut
25%Cardio
10%Damage
15%Age Curve
20%Ring Rust
10%Post-KO
0%Title Fight
5 Rounds
Main Event
Arman Tsarukyan Red Flags
Weight Cut
20%Cardio
15%Damage
20%Age Curve
10%Ring Rust
5%Post-KO
0%Title Fight
5 Rounds
Main Event