Back to Event
Welterweight3 Rounds
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2
February 1, 2026
Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
Win Probability
45%Micallef
Elliott55%
Predicted Winner
Oban Elliott
Confidence: 56%Method: Decision
Why Oban Elliott is Favored
Oban Elliott, 'The Welsh Gangster', is on a 5-fight win streak and brings well-rounded skills. Micallef is a solid wrestler but Elliott's ability to scramble and work off his back should neutralize the grappling threat. Elliott's activity and volume should earn him rounds in a competitive fight.
Style Matchup Breakdown
Micallef's wrestling vs Elliott's scrambling ability. Both fighters are well-rounded but Elliott's volume and activity should be the difference. Micallef needs to control and grind to win.
Key Factors
Elliott on 5-fight win streakMicallef's wrestlingElliott's scrambling abilityBoth fighters durableElliott's volume advantageCompetitive matchup
Jonathan Micallef Style
Oban Elliott Style
Jonathan Micallef Momentum
Momentum
HotLast 5 Fights
4W - 1L
Streak
1W
Hotness Index
70
Decline Index
10
Oban Elliott Momentum
Momentum
HotLast 5 Fights
5W - 0L
Streak
5W
Hotness Index
82
Decline Index
5
Jonathan Micallef Red Flags
Weight Cut
15%Cardio
15%Damage
15%Age Curve
10%Ring Rust
10%Post-KO
10%Title Fight
5 Rounds
Main Event
Oban Elliott Red Flags
Weight Cut
15%Cardio
20%Damage
15%Age Curve
5%Ring Rust
5%Post-KO
10%Title Fight
5 Rounds
Main Event