Win Probability
Why Alexander Volkanovski is Favored
This immediate rematch favors Volkanovski's championship experience and ability to make adjustments. While Lopes has the reach advantage (72.5" vs 71.5") and dangerous finishing ability, Volk's pressure, volume, and elite cardio should carry him through 5 rounds. Lopes showed he can compete at the highest level in their first fight, but Volkanovski's experience in close championship fights gives him the edge. The key will be whether Lopes can find the finish before the later rounds where Volk's cardio becomes a major factor.
Style Matchup Breakdown
Volkanovski's pressure and volume vs Lopes' counter-striking creates a compelling matchup. Lopes' BJJ and submission threat (90%) vs Volk's wrestling defense. Volk's cardio (95%) significantly superior to Lopes' (75%). Lopes' 5" height advantage could be a factor in the standup. Both coming off their first meeting gives Volk a slight preparation edge as the champion.